By the side of the foreign trade, the result of the trade balance in 2008 has a double reading: the first is that shows that it recorded an increase of 19% in relative to the previous year registering a surplus of US $13.176 million. The second reading indicates that it recorded a strong deterioration on the end of the year and in December exports recorded an annual fall of 24%, while imports contracted in that month by 11% year on year, which mark an alert light for the commercial result of this year where the strong slowdown in the global economy will impact negatively on foreign sales via a minor demand both in terms of prices and quantities. For this year, since the market is projected to a surplus commercial USD 6 billion, although the same could prove even less of continue to deteriorate the external context and agricultural losses due to drought are higher than the estimated currently. The reduction in the fiscal surplus, capital outflows from the country projected by the market, which for this year would amount to US $10 billion will represent complications for which the Government It may be made of the dollars needed to cope with the payment of the debt obligations. In 2008, capital flight reached USD 23.096 million (in 2007 had been $8.880 billion).

It is that in the absence of external financing, speculations indicate that Government should resort to the reserves of the BCRA to meet foreign currency obligations that represent 40% of the obligations that the country has this year. The Government must close the financial program which has eased through the return to public retirement and pension system and the redemption of the guaranteed loans (PG), but still needs US $6,000 million pay to comply with the obligations in foreign currency. This possibility of resorting to the international reserves of the BCRA at a time in which international financial markets are agitated represents a high risk to the stability of the Argentine economy.